Contributing Writer
Tom Dawson
It’s March and I writing about hurricanes. Yes, spring has not yet sprung, and something NOAA said recently about the weather caught my attention. Growing up we the old wisdom said, "if March comes in like a lion, it will go out like a lamb." This saying was based on centuries of basic weather observations. Spring will dawn across the U.S. on March 20th at 10:46 A.M. EDT, when the spring equinox in the Northern Hemisphere happens.
For us in Florida it usually just means another day in paradise. But lurking just 73 days later is the start of hurricane season. Sometime in May we will be seeing the first forecasts for the 2026 hurricane season. Will they be any better than the 2025 predictions?
In 2025 forecasters warned us to expect 13 to 19 named storms, 6 to 10 hurricanes, and 3 to 5 major hurricanes. However, no Atlantic hurricanes hit the U.S. in the 2025 hurricane season, what happened?
By the end of the 2025 season, there were 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, and none of them made landfall in the U.S. The last time no hurricanes made landfall in the U.S was in 2015.
According to NOAA’s Historical Hurricane Tracker (https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/news/historical-hurricanes/) since 1858 there have been 98 storms within 60 nautical miles for Cape Coral. Thirty-four of those storms reached hurricane strength. Only two, Ian in 2022 and an unnamed storm in 1935 were Category 5 storms. Twelve were rated Category 4, fifteen were Category 3, and twenty-seven were Category 2 or 1.
According to Hurricane City’s database (https://hurricanecity.com/city/fortmyers.htm) Lee County is brushed or hit every 2.37 years. The longest gap between storms was 1970 – 1984. According to their data we average a major hurricane once every 15.4 years.
So, what is happened with the 2025 forecast? Although it seems we do have lots of historical information from the last 167 years forecasters are missing critical pieces of data. Like any information about storms that did not make landfall. “In like a lion and out like a lamb,” is based on centuries of experience. Hurricane forecasts not so much.
Although hurricane hunter aircraft have been flying since the 1940s, they were unable to fly into the most powerful hurricanes and collect the type of date we can get today. It wasn’t until the 1980’s that forecasters started to get reliable data from satellite coverage of the storms in the Atlantic.
This means forecasters make many assumptions based on about 40+ years of good data. Computer scientists like to say, “garbage in, garbage out.” Meaning in this case not enough good data and too many false assumptions results in forecasts that may not be reliable.
Here is what NOAA said about hurricanes and “global warming” in their update on Global Warming and Hurricanes, An Overview of Current Research Results dated November 20, 2025, “There is no strong evidence of century-scale increasing trends in U.S. landfalling hurricanes or major hurricanes.
Similarly for Atlantic basin-wide hurricane frequency (after adjusting for changing observing capabilities over time), there is not strong evidence for an increase since the late 1800s in hurricanes, major hurricanes, or the proportion of hurricanes that reach major hurricane intensity.
We conclude that the historical Atlantic hurricane data at this stage do not provide compelling evidence for a substantial greenhouse warming-induced century-scale increase in: frequency of tropical storms, hurricanes, or major hurricanes, or in the proportion of hurricanes that become major hurricanes.”
So, what will hurricane prognosticators say about 2026? Who knows, but two things are certain first any forecaster saying hurricanes are more frequent and stronger due to “global warming” hasn’t read NOAA’s report. The other is we live in an area that hurricanes like to visit and we need to be prepared for them.
Many of the local chapters of the United States Power Squadron | America’s Boating club offer a seminar called Hurricane Preparation for Boaters in May. The seminar helps boaters understand the options they have for preparing their boat for a storm. If you or a friend or neighbor hasn’t yet experienced “the wind with a name” this seminar is a must.
Visit America’s Boating Club’s website at https://americasboatingclub.org to find a member club near you.
Stay safe!
Thomas E. Dawson
Cape Coral, Florida
Thomas E. Dawson is a member of the Cape Coral Sail and Power Squadron. If you plan of visiting Lee County, Florida, Dawson is the author of two books about boating there, Safe Boating in Southwest Florida Cape Coral Edition and Barret Bonden’s Local Knowledge Recommended - Things You Wish Someone Had Told You About Boating Here! Both books are available on Amazon.
